gulf coast tropical weather

unusual february system but heading off northeast into the far atlantic

2012-02-06T16:21:00.000-06:00

Unusual February tropical system douses south Florida, Key West

Disturbance in the vicinity of the Keys and south Florida has virtually no chance of becoming a named tropical storm says the National Hurricane Center. (National Hurricane Center)A disturbance with some tropical characteristics formed in the northern Caribbean over the weekend and is bringing heavy rains and gusty winds to south Florida and the Florida Keys.

Key West had its wettest February day on record Sunday, receiving 4.34”. That is more than three times its monthly average according to weather.com.

On Sunday, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) gave the disturbance a 30 percent chance of becoming a sub-tropical depression or sub-tropical storm. However, as of this morning, it said the storm shows “no signs of an organized surface circulation” and gives the system close to no chance of becoming a named storm.

30Slash90... the novel is arriving June 1.

2012-02-05T15:08:00.000-06:00

an interesting situation in the gulf-but don't worry

2011-10-08T10:33:00.000-05:00

the front hanging in the carribean is going to meet up with an upper level trof in the SE gulf. heats meets cold- means some kind of hybrid low... that is forcast to meander a few days..move northwest then kick out over the florida big bend area. gale winds. nothing major. of more interest is the models were picking up on a true true tropical storm ten or so days out in the nw carribean. this saturday this possibility has been dropped. that being said, there is a lot of energy left-as in heat- the MJO- has picked up- and i would not be surprised is a TS develops in mid october and moves in on southern florida.

2011-09-11T14:53:00.001-05:00

And less us not forget about what happen ten years ago on that terrible morning

2011-09-11T14:47:00.000-05:00

when people misused their religion and beliefs..and used their undescribable hatefulness. and used technology to strike that what is THE VERY BEST HOPE FOR MANKIND. The world is fighting back thru democracy and the god given right for people to determine their simple lives on this earth... but less us not be mistaken--these few few people with today's devices will strike back. God bless the people who who come into this country legally and make a brand new start...but everyone else/those are the ones to watch out for.

sept 25

2011-09-11T14:39:00.001-05:00

there is a well known though not publicized historical note -about a high pressure situated right off the ny east coast around sept 25. if it is there---90 percent of the time ..around sept 25 or so... there is a storm in the carribean due south. it is a last gasp measure to equalize the pressure systems. now, this is a educated guess... that this might happen a few days sooner... since the gulf has had a few early high pressure systems move in. and yes.. the models are picking up on a few things around sept 20th.

With Nate heading to Mex-nothing in gulf for at least ten days when...

2011-09-10T15:44:00.002-05:00

pressures fall across the carribean and the GFS and the EURO hint at a few possible systems. the last 2 weeks of Sept are usually ripe for a Florida strike.

future-looks like gulf almost free- the 9 day forecast are 2 possible systems

2011-09-09T13:30:00.000-05:00

Nate==going to mexico

2011-09-09T11:30:00.000-05:00

those bay of campeche storms are almost always going to go west , sw or whatever. this one almost got picked up...but nate was way, way down there. now, if this was a storm traveling across the carribean.. and ended up in the BOC, then climatoligically-sp- it would have been picked up by a trof.
if nate had been 150 miles north.. then it might be heading for the n GOM.

interestingly the nws AFD's were realeased early from...around 2-30 pm

2011-09-08T16:06:00.000-05:00

new orleans, mobile and houston.usually released around 330pm. this was pre recon mission. now a small hurricane -nate- might be found. it's realy a small thing..hinting into to the models of a mexico landfall. waiting to post until....4pm notes arrive..hmm...maria is forecast lower into the nw carribean... possibly creating a pathway for nate? have to use the deep tropical models on this. the fly in the oinment is that nate is deep in the bay of campeche. almost impossible to drag something out of there....nhc is busy-3 storms. late on the discussions. nate should be last.
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS NATE STRONGER...

4:00 PM CDT Thu Sep 8

Location: 19.7°N 92.3°W

Max sustained: 70 mph

Moving: SSE at 2 mph

Min pressure: 995 mb

only guessing -1 minute left- might be to deep in the BOC to get picked up.kate , maria discussion out..4-02pm..will post later early friday morning if still around

Nate- waiting for the 5pm info-click pic for loop

2011-09-08T15:25:00.001-05:00

notice the gfs ensembles-either mexico or the n gulf coast. a recon plane is out there right now. 4pm should be interesting. also..notice the trof nate mite ride up on thru the gulf coast. the faster the high builds in -mexico.

NATE- a hurricane!per recon! won't be updated until later

2011-09-08T14:04:00.000-05:00

this is important. the stronger nate is... the more likely to be pulled north.
the 18z-which means the 18 hours greenwich time -have yet to come out
but these are the 12z

this is vip. the high builds in... forces the gulf storm to mex... and yet forces the n carribean storm westward. this pic is 72 hours in the future. but also notice the break along the fla/ala coast= this is what some some of the global models are picking up.

12z -noon models flipping back to mexico

2011-09-08T13:11:00.002-05:00

models on nate change- a changing senerio between mex and gulf coast

2011-09-08T13:06:00.000-05:00

Nate is meandering due to two weak steering currents ..it's caught between 2 mid level highs.intersting the ex Lee is part of the forecast problem. Lee is still a closed low.. but at one point in the future will turn open up into a wave and a trough will develop. Now, we have those 2 storms off the east coast that will exit in 4 days.The question- will Nate pick up on the trof-now forecast this morning to be stronger and deeeper by gfs-or will the high build in faster by those 2 departing storms forcing Nate more to the mexico coast. also, that killer higher over texas might build in again. the globals are mixed on this.
another point is that neal is not stacked and may reform more north. Whew!

the dilemna- graphic from the fort worth nws

2011-09-07T14:37:00.000-05:00

and models froms orcasystems

12z euro is out-a bit more to texas in 96 hrs- and recon is in system-

2011-09-07T13:36:00.002-05:00

Euro, CMC and NAM bullish.

2011-09-07T10:57:00.000-05:00

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/
http://ready.arl.noaa.gov/ready2-bin/animation.pl?id=NAM/Eta&mdl=grads/nam/panel2&file=anim

next gulf storm forming

2011-09-07T10:40:00.000-05:00

models-either it drifts into central mex or slowly moves to the n gulf coast. euro may move it to fast -4 days-it mite wait until tuesday. the burmuda high kicks in around then so it might get stuck along the n gulf like Lee.

cmc shows it moving into N GOM in 114 hrs.

buoy posts-running out of time to post

2011-09-02T12:10:00.000-05:00

these numbers look like a TS system
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42362
http://www.stormsurf.com/buoy/mht/gom.html

looks like on that last loop something like an eye forming

2011-09-02T12:03:00.000-05:00

look at the gfdl-parks it over lake pontchartrain

2011-09-02T11:07:00.000-05:00

also...it looks like the BAMM models did not intialize well. those are the green tracks. also..we do not see any loops..but mostly a slow moving large tropical system that will be picked up sunday or blunted sw...and that would be a whole new scenerio.

the entire city of new orleans is shutting down

2011-09-02T10:52:00.000-05:00

yes, this will be a big rain event.
it all reminds people of juan in 1985.
some pics 5 days out.

Recon just discovered a west wind -hence an upgrade to at least TD staus before 5pm

2011-09-01T15:02:00.000-05:00

warnings might go up at 5pm also. this system is at least within 48 hour landfall.
just found pic. straight south of grand isle.west winds found. that's the inital position

from the noon AFD from the NOLA NWS- a lot of uncertainty!intersting read

2011-09-01T14:55:00.002-05:00

FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS OR MORE...MODELS HAVE INDICATED THE

DEVELOPMENT OF AN UPPER AND SURFACE LOW IN THE WESTERN GULF JUST OFF

THE LOUISIANA COAST. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE SYSTEM WILL BE A

SUBTROPICAL OR HYBRID STORM OF SORTS. THE MAIN CONCERN ISNT SO MUCH

WHETHER ITS COMPLETELY TROPICAL OR NOT AND ITS INTENSITY BUT RATHER

THE RAINFALL POTENTIAL WITH THIS EVENT. THOUGH THERE HAS BEEN A

GENERAL LACK OF RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL CONTINUITY...THE BASIC

AGREEMENT IS THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF RAIN...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE

COAST. SO...BIGGEST CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FCST IS THE RATHER LARGE

INCREASE IN AREAL RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. DIVULGING INTO

A FEW OF THE MODELS:

CANADIAN...DEVELOPS LOW SOUTH OF SABINE PASS FRIDAY AND BRINGS IT

INTO SOUTHERN TEXAS COAST SUNDAY NIGHT.

NAM12...DEVELOPS LOW SOUTH OF LCH TONIGHT AND BRINGS IT INTO

VERMILLION BAY SATURDAY NIGHT. DGEX CONTINUES THE LOW ON A WOBBLY

NEWD TRACK THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SREF...IS SAME AS NAM12 BUT SLIGHTLY SLOWER ON INLAND MOVEMENT WITH

THE LOW STILL IN VERMILLION BAY MID DAY SUNDAY.

ECMWF...DEVELOPS THE LOW TONIGHT SOUTH OF SABINE PASS...BRINGS IT

NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE SOUTH CENTRAL LA COAST THROUGH MIDDAY

SUNDAY...TRACKS SWWD AWAY FROM THE COAST TILL THE MIDDLE TO LATE

NEXT WEEK AND THEN BACK NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TOWARDS THE

APPALACHIAN MTNS.

GFS...DEVELOPS THE LOW FARTHER SOUTH OF LCH THAN THE OTHERS

TONIGHT...BRINGS IT INLAND OVER SOUTH CENTRAL LA SATURDAY NIGHT...

THEN BACK OFF SHORE AND CONTINUED SOUTHWEST TO BROWNSVILLE TX

MIDWEEK.

SLEW OF MULTIPLE TROPICAL MODELS...IT WOULD TAKE A BOOK TO DESCRIBE

THEM AS THE SOLUTIONS ARE VERY WIDELY SPREAD IN TRACKS AND TIMING.

THEY SEEM TO ZIG ZAG OFF THE LA COAST AND THE LOW COULD BE ANYWHERES

FROM NORTHERN MEXICO TO EASTERN GULF IN 5 DAYS ACCORDING TO THESE

MODELS.

SO...LOOKING AT ALL THIS MODEL DATA...DIFFERENT ONES HAVE

SIMILARITIES IN PARTS OF ITS SOLUTIONS WITH OTHERS. WITH THE

FORECAST...HAVE TRIED TO INCORPORATE AN ENSEMBLE OF ALL OF THESE

RESULTS INTO A SOMEWHAT CONSISTENT SOLUTION. THE RESULT IS THAT

THERE SHOULD BE A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHEAST

LA/MS MAINLY FROM FRIDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND. THINKING IS

THAT THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS...AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 3

INCHES OVER FARTHER INLAND AREAS SUCH AS BATON ROUGE AND THEN

UPWARDS TO POSSIBLY NEAR 1 FOOT ALONG COASTAL LOUISIANA PARISHES.

ALL IS PLAUSIBLE WITH SUCH A TROPICAL AIRMASS TO BE IN PLACE. MODEL

SOUNDINGS INDICATE 2.65+ INCHES OF PRECIP WATER AT MSY FRIDAY AND

SATURDAY. SO...WILL BE A VERY EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCING ENVIRONMENT

WITH HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED. GOING WITH THIS THEME...WILL BE ISSUING

FLASH FLOOD WATCH WITH FCST PACKAGE THIS MORNING. DECIDED ON

ASSUMPTION PARISH TO LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND SOUTHWARD AS WELL AS

COASTAL MS COUNTIES. FOR TIMING...THE BULK OF THE HEAVY RAIN LOOKS

LIKE IT WILL BE FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY SO FRI-12Z TO MON-00Z.

AREAL COVERAGE OF THE WATCH COULD EXPANDED NORTH AND TIME MAY BE

LENGTHENED WITH LATER FCSTS BUT FOR NOW IS THE BEST FIRST GUESS.

JUST LOOKS TO BE LIKE TOO WET OF A SCENARIO ABOUT TO PLAY OUT TO

NOT HAVE THE WATCH OUT.

possibly rain up to 15 inches

2011-09-01T14:52:00.000-05:00

notice a little upper low over SE LA right now, intersting.

latest gfs-the usa system -has it sitting over nola 3 days

2011-09-01T14:35:00.000-05:00

http://ready.arl.noaa.gov/ready2-bin/animation.pl?id=GFS&mdl=grads/gfs/panel2&file=anim

the 60 hr gfs shows the problem. it's stuck between 2 high pressure systems and no upper trof to pick it up. also notice the high in the colorados driving south that will block any n movement. also since it has not been forecast to be a strong system ...it is driven by these factors. actually , if it strengenthed to a cat 2..it would be better as it would be driven NE.

http://ready.arl.noaa.gov/ready2-bin/animation.pl?id=GFS&mdl=grads/gfs/panel2&file=anim

a rapidly developing weather situation is happening in the gulf

2011-09-01T14:20:00.000-05:00

a recon plane is out there in the GOM right now. a tropical storm watch might be out by 5pm. yes, the models are over the place. let me post a few things first.
the first is the reliable euro model at 72 hrs. then the 96hr shows the storm drifting around the n GOM. the 3rd shows that this still storm will confound everyone for a few days. once that recon gets a single location, then it will be less dicey. the funny thing is that the models are right: the steering currents are weak, the storm will be a weak cat 1-hence a wondering system that has to wait until monday to get lifted out.

2011-08-31T15:12:00.000-05:00

lots of shear in lower gulf.once the wave mones northeast-it will weaken. obviuosly, it's not going to lower texas,.... this should all be interesting as in the worst case it might turn into a meandering cat 1-like the infamous juan in 1985.

texas/la - home brew tropical system will happen

2011-08-31T11:21:00.000-05:00

most models on board. the position has to be intialized. there is a split in the big texas high and the high off the east coast. but the those 2 might merge-hence a wandering gulf system this weekend.
lastest 12 z shows a n gulf system in 72 hours

you can see it taking place now.looks lioke it's moving to the tex/la coast . notice the warm front backing up over the n gom.loop
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-avn.html
also-is that a 960 low?

now the navy-nogaps is on board for a louisiana event.loop
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_loop.cgi?&area=ngp_troplant&prod=sfc10m&dtg=2011083112&set=Tropical
so at noon wednesday-it looka like a strong tropical storm will affect tex/la coast and
now all the way to the miss coast.

liberals fall flat on their faces to create a major economic disaster

2011-08-28T15:36:00.000-05:00

The storm barely reached long island as a hurricane. in fair play-christie paniced also.
however, the dems were going to use this so called disaster to ram up the president's economic
job plan next week.
oh,well...it's bush's fault... and the tea party weakened the storm.!
we can hear the chorus now.
latest radar http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=BOX&product=NCR&overlay=11101111&loop=yes
http://news.yahoo.com/irene-little-damage-seen-many-places-135226709.html
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/tobyharnden/100102355/perfect-storm-of-hype-politicians-the-media-and-the-hurricane-irene-apocalypse-that-never-was/

12z gfs arriving now

2011-08-20T12:28:00.000-05:00

none of the models are looking at a cat 4-5 storm. interesting considering the water temp-but norm since the models are horrendous at storm strength. this still looks like a west coast florida system. the caveat is that the depression center has not been determined yet--so how do the models get a handle on it ? from se La to FLA looks like an easy 100 percent pick. I wish i was a trader in oil and things like that.

look at the 2 highs building over the ne usa- will they be stronger or weaker? a hurricane has a tuff time breaking thru a 1016 mb high

2011-08-20T11:38:00.000-05:00

possible aug 29 landfall somewhere on the n gulf coast

2011-08-19T14:55:00.000-05:00

this track will change. too many things depending on where it makes the n turn. especially the trof that comes across the n east usa coast. also,,if the storm stays weak... then a more westward track. that being said; this is a usa hit. latest euro model shows a cat3-4 up the west coast of florida.

interesting scenerio from the euro in 10 days for nola

2011-06-02T14:33:00.002-05:00

tropical season possibly off to an early start next week-some type of mid level cut off low.

2011-05-24T21:03:00.000-05:00

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2011052412&field=850mb+Vorticity&hour=Animation

a bit off weather-but catch THE TREME theme song-turn it up!

2011-05-17T20:39:00.001-05:00

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1M1Iagf3GSs
john boutte

as the season approaches..lower pressures cover the carribean

2011-05-17T20:29:00.000-05:00

possible early tropical storm?

2011-05-14T09:25:00.000-05:00

12z gfs just out-new trend-looks like a fla panhandle/bigbend cat 1 storm in 5 days

2010-09-25T11:29:00.000-05:00

saturday a.m. now splits energy into 2 storms

2010-09-25T09:57:00.000-05:00

and moves mathew into w gom! that was just the opposite less than 24 hrs ago.
nicole stays in nw caribbean and the 2 storms do the fujiwhara dance.

friday 5pm gfs ensembles show mathew might move a bit more to the panhandle

2010-09-24T16:11:00.000-05:00

from wunderground

messy forecast but still florida bound eventually

2010-09-24T08:52:00.000-05:00

mathew wanders around the yucatan and may possible weaken until another low forms in the nw caribbean a nd then gets kicked over over s fla next weekend

td 15-yesterday's 18z runs-the question is where will the trof set up and how strong will it be

2010-09-23T14:14:00.000-05:00

some mathew models

2010-09-21T16:59:00.000-05:00

12z euro shows Mathew missing the trof

2010-09-21T14:27:00.000-05:00

but that is ten days out. That's a long stall..although Opal and Mitch to stall over Yucutan/CA.

mathew-to-be proposes a gulf landstrike plus forecast dilemna

2010-09-21T12:46:00.000-05:00

All models show the wave moving across the e caribbean to develop as it approaches the nicaragua area. a large trof-along with a possible cut off low- will dive down along the eastern seaboard this weekend.
1) will it pick up on the trof and move across florida? or if the trof lifts out fast enough will the storm meander in the gulf/yucatan as it waits for the next opening?
2) recon will be out there a lot as this storm is forecast to be a cat4/5. also if it crosses the east coast of fla..another landfall might be the carolinas. another fly in the outment might be a secondary low forming in the n caribbean that the models have not picked up on..or that the trof might not be as strong or slow down.

saturday-noon -cmc 12z showing gulf storm in 5 days

2010-09-18T13:03:00.000-05:00

gfs, euro showing a major storm in the gulf about ten days out also. to far out to pinpoint... but the caribbean will be cooking the last part of sept. also the mjo swings back into action.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2010091812&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

around sept 29- all models coming on board for a gulf storm

2010-09-16T11:46:00.000-05:00

models definitely picking up GOM stores at the end of month

2010-09-15T11:52:00.000-05:00

high pressure protects the gulf

2010-09-14T16:11:00.002-05:00

in ten days the gulf is open

2010-09-14T14:43:00.000-05:00

gfs in multiple runs shows a powerful hurricane entering the gulf around 276 hours out. the east coast trof is gone and the bermuda high moves east...allowing the gulf and fla to be open for a hit.

high protects the gulf this week...2 weeks away: the setup changes for a gulf storm

2010-09-12T18:03:00.000-05:00

soon to be Julia is blocked by the El NINA high protecting the gulf.

2010-09-11T13:14:00.000-05:00

92l possible gulf threat

2010-09-10T10:57:00.000-05:00

notice the models are spread. also notice in day 7 the low over texas that might entice this storm to move north.

92l-possible gulf strike next week

2010-09-09T14:34:00.000-05:00

models getting clustered with gustan= florida and gom in the radar

2010-09-04T20:34:00.000-05:00

latest gfs has gaston entering the gulf as a major hurricane

2010-09-04T12:28:00.000-05:00

http://ready.arl.noaa.gov/ready2-bin/animation.pl?id=GFS&mdl=grads/gfslr/panel2&file=anim

possible bay of campeche development

2010-09-04T07:11:00.000-05:00

but the front that just thru protects the n gulf

gaston-gfs ensembles -ten days out-not good for gulf

2010-09-02T21:48:00.000-05:00

gaston moves west-then feels a weakness moves n a bit-the next high builds in and drives gaston more west
. the other problem is the storm right behind gaston.

downgraded gaston will move west for 5 days-not good for usa

2010-09-02T20:08:00.000-05:00

the next storm will be a slowmover-usa dealing with it for 2 weeks

2010-09-02T16:07:00.002-05:00

http://ready.arl.noaa.gov/ready2-bin/animation.pl?id=GFS&mdl=grads/gfslr/panel2&file=anim

gaston headed for carribean and gulf?

2010-09-01T21:50:00.000-05:00

a high pressure builds in n of gaston and steers it west.

does fiona run into the high that builds behind earl?

2010-08-30T22:55:00.002-05:00

ex td5 moving back into gulf tonite

2010-08-15T09:07:00.002-05:00

very evident circulation
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-vis-s.html

posible cat 2

2010-08-11T15:03:00.001-05:00

94l -looks like a weak storm- sorry no updates. a family thing.thks

2010-08-10T15:46:00.000-05:00

colin models

2010-08-02T14:20:00.002-05:00

monday- soon to be colin-big changes-this is developing

2010-08-02T14:16:00.000-05:00

latest models are running- there is an arriving consensus that the trof/front won't be strong enough for a full re curvature. the carolinas now seem to be in the overall track pattern. so a wnw movement s of the models then it picks up the weakness over PR and hits the upper low and shear...might weaken..a bit.. a nw movement.. then that it goes pass that as the trof lifts off and a more west movement kicks in. the models are still trying to get a hold and once a plane gets down there..then more will be known. a possible usa hit by monday suddenly looks more likely.

ecmwf ten days out shows colin missing trof

2010-08-01T15:36:00.002-05:00

hats off to weatherguy2 for graphic

91l -first major threat to usa this year

2010-08-01T09:13:00.000-05:00

the models all on board. it feels the weakness around puerto rico and then the high builds back in pushing it more west
http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_91.gif

euro model takes system 90l/cape verde wave into gulf 1n 10 days

2010-07-31T14:30:00.002-05:00

the gfs has it around east florida

wave south of cape verde

2010-07-31T13:06:00.000-05:00

90l is discontinued..but the strong wave right behind it will catch up to it and it looks like a td will form in the next 36 hours. all along the atlantic pressuresare low. the front along the east coast will lift out, allowing this next development to move and continuewnw.: the n antilles in 6 days and a possible s usa hit in another 6. so let's look at around aug 12 for the next storm to affect the usa.

cismiss tracking wave in esat caribbean

2010-07-30T10:34:00.000-05:00

puerto rico nws discussion for next week

2010-07-30T08:02:00.001-05:00

...THE CURRENT SOLUTION OF THE GFS SHOWS MANY WAVELETS

PASSING THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...EACH

BRINGING A PULSE OF ENERGY THAT TENDS TO BRING HEAVIEST RAIN NORTH

OF THE AREA. THIS IS A PLAUSIBLE SOLUTION...BUT WAVES MAY NOT MOVE

NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA AND THERE IS SOME CHANCE THAT THEY WILL

STRENGTHEN AS THEY MOVE INTO THE AREA ESPECIALLY IF THEY ARE ABLE

TO COALESCE INTO A SINGLE MORE POWERFUL OR COHERENT WAVE. NEEDLESS

TO SAY CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY SURROUNDS THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE

WEATHER IN THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

tropics heat up in ten days

2010-07-28T12:42:00.000-05:00

The GFS is coming out with their new global model today. The cape verde season is about to start and the models are starting to hint at some development in the middle of next week. Also, the bermuda high /and upper high that protected the gulf thru july is forecast to back off...suggesting that the gulf and east coast will be open season. Lastly, all those pesky upper lows, tutts are forecast to diminish...

ten free days then action starts

2010-07-27T12:21:00.002-05:00

the big high over the gulf breaks down in ten days

monday july 26

2010-07-26T11:33:00.000-05:00

looks like a free ten days...lots of dry air, sinking and SAL-african sand-across the atlantic. also waiting for another uptick in the MJO in 2 weeks. possible devlopment in wave coming off africa. also a new cool link.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/predict/real-time/storm.php?&basin=atlantic&sname=PGI20L&zoom=4&img=1&vars=1111000000000000&loop=0

click on a spot for nasa's great resolution closeup of bonnie

2010-07-24T13:20:00.002-05:00

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconuswv.html

bonnie limps 2 coast

2010-07-24T09:31:00.000-05:00

bonnie downgraded to depression. but now over warm water. getting sheared

2010-07-23T16:01:00.002-05:00

2010-07-23T12:04:00.000-05:00

the visible shows that strngthening is possible http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satellite/displaySat.php?region=TPA&itype=vis&size=large&endDate=20100723&endTime=-1&duration=12

http://img185.imageshack.us/i/al032010072312.png/

5pm track comes in line with models -SELA

2010-07-22T15:40:00.000-05:00

this is what you call a model cluster-bonnie

2010-07-22T13:59:00.000-05:00

2pm thurs models to SELA

2010-07-22T13:48:00.000-05:00

recon out now-if the ull moves to the sw...bonnie may strengthen

strong ridge keeps bonnie moving wnw-will the high breakdown over the weekend?

2010-07-22T10:26:00.000-05:00

84hrs out-cmc shows a weak reflection s la/ms.

2010-07-21T12:22:00.000-05:00

thus system is getting away from the mountains. now it has to get away from the tutt, ull and shear. that should happen in the gom or gulfstream. still, models don't predict a strong storm. the high is cutting back east today, and starting fri it builds back in.recon was canceled but i think nasa is flying out a plane for other oberservation.

la/miss ?

2010-07-20T20:11:00.000-05:00

97l headed for gulf as a weak storm

2010-07-20T19:07:00.000-05:00

most models showing some type of n gulf landfall. the mystery is why the models have it so weak. is the ull going to entrain the system the enire way?

18z dynamic models out-miss/la/ watchout!

2010-07-20T15:03:00.000-05:00

more models-also the euro just came out with a a stronger high and a tex/la hit

2010-07-20T14:28:00.001-05:00

the bamm models-which portray a weaker system show a more louth track.the high is setting in like a nose into the southern states.you can see it on the models. the upper fla track seems less plausible with the euro climbing on board for a more west track. More importantly, this storm will hit 2 times in the next 4 days. any track affects the oil spill.

to be bonnie..developing as we speak.

2010-07-20T14:18:00.001-05:00

looks to be intializing a bit more south. nam and the navy site puts it over SELA. The track all depends on when the high -which stays strong until thurs-starts to break down.

bonnie to be models for tuesday morning

2010-07-20T09:27:00.000-05:00

monday nite models

2010-07-19T20:27:00.000-05:00

12z euro sends 97l into la-albeit a weak storm

2010-07-19T14:53:00.002-05:00

12z models -97l

2010-07-19T12:48:00.000-05:00

the bam models show a further west track with a weaker system. but the high protecting the western gulf does break down all the way back to the panhandle.

97l won't develop until thurs

2010-07-19T12:36:00.000-05:00

then it gets out the shear, the upper low retreats west enough to ventilate the storm and a upper high gets over the gom. the high -a strong one-pushes the wave westward and then around friday it breaks down. the canadian, the gfs, the euro all show the possible future storm finding the opening and makes it n turn between the twx/la border and alabama. steering currents look strong and fast. but until it develops thursday thetropical models won't have a real position to hook their track on.now, let's up that for the next 3 days the tropical wave cuts thru the mountainous areas of the caribbean. that being said..i would say that as of monday there is a fifty percent chance of a storm hitting the upper gulf coast next sunday/monday.

uh-oh models getting on board. cmc to miss/la by next weekend

2010-07-19T12:18:00.000-05:00

97l is up. attention gulf.

2010-07-19T06:27:00.000-05:00

its being steered by a strong high that will push it into thegom..where the high will back off and lead to a sudden n turn, where this turn takes place is up in question.

a tropical wave in the gom shows possbile development

2010-07-16T14:17:00.002-05:00

conditions aloft are ok.
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/gulfvs.html

new predictions out-up to 23-28 storms this year

2010-07-12T14:26:00.001-05:00

23 named storms: PSU statistical model

20 named storms: UKMET GloSea dynamical model

18.5 named storms, 11 hurricanes, 5 major hurricanes: NOAA hybrid statistical/dynamical model technique

18 named storms, 10 hurricanes, 5 intense hurricanes: CSU statistical model (Phil Klotzbach/Bill Gray)

17.7 named storms, 9.5 hurricanes, 4.4 intense hurricanes: Tropical Storm Risk (TSR), hybrid statistical/dynamical model technique

17 named storms, 10 hurricanes: FSU dynamical model

10 named storms, 6 hurricanes, 2 intense hurricanes: climatology