from the noon AFD from the NOLA NWS- a lot of uncertainty!intersting read

FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS OR MORE...MODELS HAVE INDICATED THE


DEVELOPMENT OF AN UPPER AND SURFACE LOW IN THE WESTERN GULF JUST OFF

THE LOUISIANA COAST. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE SYSTEM WILL BE A

SUBTROPICAL OR HYBRID STORM OF SORTS. THE MAIN CONCERN ISNT SO MUCH

WHETHER ITS COMPLETELY TROPICAL OR NOT AND ITS INTENSITY BUT RATHER

THE RAINFALL POTENTIAL WITH THIS EVENT. THOUGH THERE HAS BEEN A

GENERAL LACK OF RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL CONTINUITY...THE BASIC

AGREEMENT IS THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF RAIN...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE

COAST. SO...BIGGEST CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FCST IS THE RATHER LARGE

INCREASE IN AREAL RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. DIVULGING INTO

A FEW OF THE MODELS:



CANADIAN...DEVELOPS LOW SOUTH OF SABINE PASS FRIDAY AND BRINGS IT

INTO SOUTHERN TEXAS COAST SUNDAY NIGHT.



NAM12...DEVELOPS LOW SOUTH OF LCH TONIGHT AND BRINGS IT INTO

VERMILLION BAY SATURDAY NIGHT. DGEX CONTINUES THE LOW ON A WOBBLY

NEWD TRACK THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.



SREF...IS SAME AS NAM12 BUT SLIGHTLY SLOWER ON INLAND MOVEMENT WITH

THE LOW STILL IN VERMILLION BAY MID DAY SUNDAY.



ECMWF...DEVELOPS THE LOW TONIGHT SOUTH OF SABINE PASS...BRINGS IT

NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE SOUTH CENTRAL LA COAST THROUGH MIDDAY

SUNDAY...TRACKS SWWD AWAY FROM THE COAST TILL THE MIDDLE TO LATE

NEXT WEEK AND THEN BACK NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TOWARDS THE

APPALACHIAN MTNS.



GFS...DEVELOPS THE LOW FARTHER SOUTH OF LCH THAN THE OTHERS

TONIGHT...BRINGS IT INLAND OVER SOUTH CENTRAL LA SATURDAY NIGHT...

THEN BACK OFF SHORE AND CONTINUED SOUTHWEST TO BROWNSVILLE TX

MIDWEEK.



SLEW OF MULTIPLE TROPICAL MODELS...IT WOULD TAKE A BOOK TO DESCRIBE

THEM AS THE SOLUTIONS ARE VERY WIDELY SPREAD IN TRACKS AND TIMING.

THEY SEEM TO ZIG ZAG OFF THE LA COAST AND THE LOW COULD BE ANYWHERES

FROM NORTHERN MEXICO TO EASTERN GULF IN 5 DAYS ACCORDING TO THESE

MODELS.



SO...LOOKING AT ALL THIS MODEL DATA...DIFFERENT ONES HAVE

SIMILARITIES IN PARTS OF ITS SOLUTIONS WITH OTHERS. WITH THE

FORECAST...HAVE TRIED TO INCORPORATE AN ENSEMBLE OF ALL OF THESE

RESULTS INTO A SOMEWHAT CONSISTENT SOLUTION. THE RESULT IS THAT

THERE SHOULD BE A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHEAST

LA/MS MAINLY FROM FRIDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND. THINKING IS

THAT THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS...AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 3

INCHES OVER FARTHER INLAND AREAS SUCH AS BATON ROUGE AND THEN

UPWARDS TO POSSIBLY NEAR 1 FOOT ALONG COASTAL LOUISIANA PARISHES.

ALL IS PLAUSIBLE WITH SUCH A TROPICAL AIRMASS TO BE IN PLACE. MODEL

SOUNDINGS INDICATE 2.65+ INCHES OF PRECIP WATER AT MSY FRIDAY AND

SATURDAY. SO...WILL BE A VERY EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCING ENVIRONMENT

WITH HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED. GOING WITH THIS THEME...WILL BE ISSUING

FLASH FLOOD WATCH WITH FCST PACKAGE THIS MORNING. DECIDED ON

ASSUMPTION PARISH TO LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND SOUTHWARD AS WELL AS

COASTAL MS COUNTIES. FOR TIMING...THE BULK OF THE HEAVY RAIN LOOKS

LIKE IT WILL BE FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY SO FRI-12Z TO MON-00Z.

AREAL COVERAGE OF THE WATCH COULD EXPANDED NORTH AND TIME MAY BE

LENGTHENED WITH LATER FCSTS BUT FOR NOW IS THE BEST FIRST GUESS.

JUST LOOKS TO BE LIKE TOO WET OF A SCENARIO ABOUT TO PLAY OUT TO

NOT HAVE THE WATCH OUT.