Tuesday, November 3, 2009

97l may be around for a while... ten days?


in the next 5 days it moves less than 300 or so miles to all the models..and it eventually enters the boc or s gom. of course, history says that it should eventually scoot off to the fla coast. but maybe not this time. just going to post some items nola nws - A STRONG COLD FRONT IS THEN BEING ADVERTISED BY TUE OF NEXT WEEK. NO TELLING IF THIS WILL BE DELAYED OF COME IN FASTER. WHAT WILL DECIDE THE SPEED OF THIS FRONT WILL BE THE FESTERING SYSTEM IN THE EXTREME SOUTHERN GULF. POSSIBLY A DEVELOPING CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE LOWER BAY OF CAMPECHE NORTHWEST OF CUIDAD DEL CARMEN...HAS A LARGE OUTFLOW STREAM OF HIGH CLOUDS VENTING NORTHWARD OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AND INLAND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY TIGHTEN TO ALLOW FOR MODERATE WINDS NEXT FEW DAYS. MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND MEANDERS SLOWLY AROUND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. IF THIS FEATURE MATERIALIZES THEN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF EASTERLY WINDS MAY POSE A COASTAL FLOOD THREAT HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE STAYS POISED OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. MAINLAND NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. mobile=MODELSHINT AT A SFC LOW INVOF BAY OF CAMPECHE POISED TO ADVECT NWD INADVANCE OF LWAVE TROF ON DAY 7. key westTHE POWERFUL ANTICYCLONE UP NORTH WILL MAINTAIN A STEEP PRESSUREGRADIENT IN THE KEYS AND MORE IMPORTANTLY ON OUR SURROUNDING WATERS. IF YOU HAVE APASSAGE OR A CRUISE PLANNED THIS WEEK YOU SHOULD REMAIN ABREAST OFDEVELOPMENTS.