wed-12z gfs rolling out

the models are trying to come together. looks like the texas hit that the computers were predicting just 2 days ago is off the books...and now just the opposite! a low is getting it's act together around the west tip of cuba/key west. shear is high over the middle gom but is predicted to move off. a huge sits over the eastern usa with a trof off the coast. however, that high comes all the way down to just the n coast(it's protecting the n coast). this slow moving tropical systemsystem will be in the gulf for 4 days-and 82 degree water- the system will drift slowly to the middle gulf(south of La) and then try to move n where it runs into the high...then it picks up the trof and makes a sharp turn toward pensacola or the big bend area. another fly in the oinment is a possible secondary low that is trying to form deep in the bay of campeche.
a plane is flying to do an invest thursday. the nhc is doing a conference call this PM..so they are predicting this to be a weekend system causing havoc.

where this system makes that sharp turn...will be interesting...as it may get blocked from the trof...and sit in the gulf for an extended time. The pic is the NAM- a short range model to show where it will be in less then 2 1/2 days.