saturday a.m.-trmendous forecast problems

the globals keep ernesto weak and move it across the yucatan into mexico or stalls out in the BOC.indeed, the reliable GFS has never been able to get a grasp on the center or strength. that being said, the Euro has climbed on board..in that the storm is weak and never gets a hold on the obvious weakness over the n  gulf.
the GFLD- which uses the fluid (water) in the atmosphere to predict tropical systems- has the TS ramping up to a major storm and picking up the trof...pointing to a N GOM strike arounfd Friday. And it has been consistent. the GFLD was dead on with Katrina and is a reliable tropical model. one thinks that when it reaches the NW caribbean... all models will get a hold on this.(it should ramp up or not) If it makes the NW turn, the gulf coast could see evac beginning wednesday. another fly in the ointment, is the weak ssystem coming across the n gulf from s florida. MANY VARIABLES.
Note-recon in storm at 8am...finding the satellite pics don't match up with a strong system..so maybe GFS, EURO are correct.