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key west afd=DURING THE WEEKEND...ADDITIONAL COMPLICATIONS CREEP INTO THEFORECAST...AS THE DETERMINISTIC GFS AND ECMWF RUNS CONTINUE TODEVELOP AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE (POSSIBLY OF A SUBTROPICAL ORTROPICAL NATURE) IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE MODELS VARY IN THEIREXACT DEPICTION OF SUCH A SYSTEM...AS WELL AS IN THEIR DEPICTIONOF THE DOWNSTREAM MOISTURE AXIS...WHICH REMAINS ACROSS THE KEYSIN THE LATEST ECMWF RUN...DURING THE WEEKEND...ADDITIONAL COMPLICATIONS CREEP INTO THEFORECAST...AS THE DETERMINISTIC GFS AND ECMWF RUNS CONTINUE TODEVELOP AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE (POSSIBLY OF A SUBTROPICAL ORTROPICAL NATURE) IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE MODELS VARY IN THEIREXACT DEPICTION OF SUCH A SYSTEM...AS WELL AS IN THEIR DEPICTIONOF THE DOWNSTREAM MOISTURE AXIS...WHICH REMAINS ACROSS THE KEYSIN THE LATEST ECMWF RUN...
nola nws A SFC TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP OVER THE SWRNGULF. THE COMBINATION OF THIS AND THE CENTER OF A STRONG SFC HIGHJUST OFF TO OUR NE WILL TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LEADING TOMODERATE NERLY AND THEN ERLY FLOW BY THIS WEEKEND. THERE AREINDICATIONS THAT A SFC LOW COULD DEVELOP FROM THE SWRN GULF SFCTROUGH LATE THIS WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH THIS WOULD NOT BE TROPICAL...ITALONG WITH A DEEP SERLY FETCH COULD LEAD TO SOME COASTAL FLOODINGISSUES EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS IS STILL A WEEK AWAY BUT WILL BESOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON